I think in his bigbrain libertarian mind, the money market pricing of the peso to usd is what defined the value previously and he decided that the market’s pricing is not correct for that of the Argentinian currency.
By devaluing the currency, it makes Argentinian labor and goods comparatively cheaper on the international market. This is a similar move to how China grew at such a tremendous rate in the 90’s - they intentionally devalued their currency in order to use foreign investment in their relatively cheap labor pool to fund the creation of their manufacturing industries.
That solution probably won’t work here, though. Corporations are scared of investing in countries with unstable political leadership that performs brash actions like his. (Libertarian economics cannot account for such beliefs though since everyone must be a perfectly rational actor that chooses price above all). They are afraid that he may unilaterally nationalize certain industries and claim all assets for the state. Or he may rugpull outside investments and say that all profits must go to the state for some amount of time. Whatever flavor of stupid chainsaw wielding antics he comes up with one day is what they will see and use as a justifiable rationalization for not investing in the devalued market of Argentina.
also China was handpicked by the American capitalists to be the manufacturing hub (cheap currency was a cherry on top). Countries recently forced to devalue currencies haven’t had a similar manufacturing boom especially because global economy is doing kinda shit.
also back then there was western industry that could be offshored to china. whose industry’s gonna move to argentina now? nobody else with a significant manufacturing sector is stupid enough to do it, after watching the west shoot itself in the foot. or so one would hope…
I think in his bigbrain libertarian mind, the money market pricing of the peso to usd is what defined the value previously and he decided that the market’s pricing is not correct for that of the Argentinian currency.
You’re half right here. The idea is that the black market Peso:USD price represents the actual real value of the Peso, while the government’s official rate was miles away from this and completely divorced from reality and only remotely sustainable by endless amounts of borrowing, price controls, and money printing, which just contributes to worsening the problem. The hope is that a necessary but painful adjustment to the actual economic reality will eventually provide the stability necessary for real growth.
A smart government will know that, if you want to actually pull this kind of thing off, you need to do everything possible to make the transition as minimally painful as possible and do what you can to help protect the most vulnerable. We’ll see how Millei does, but I can’t say I’m exactly confident.
I think in his bigbrain libertarian mind, the money market pricing of the peso to usd is what defined the value previously and he decided that the market’s pricing is not correct for that of the Argentinian currency.
By devaluing the currency, it makes Argentinian labor and goods comparatively cheaper on the international market. This is a similar move to how China grew at such a tremendous rate in the 90’s - they intentionally devalued their currency in order to use foreign investment in their relatively cheap labor pool to fund the creation of their manufacturing industries.
That solution probably won’t work here, though. Corporations are scared of investing in countries with unstable political leadership that performs brash actions like his. (Libertarian economics cannot account for such beliefs though since everyone must be a perfectly rational actor that chooses price above all). They are afraid that he may unilaterally nationalize certain industries and claim all assets for the state. Or he may rugpull outside investments and say that all profits must go to the state for some amount of time. Whatever flavor of stupid chainsaw wielding antics he comes up with one day is what they will see and use as a justifiable rationalization for not investing in the devalued market of Argentina.
also China was handpicked by the American capitalists to be the manufacturing hub (cheap currency was a cherry on top). Countries recently forced to devalue currencies haven’t had a similar manufacturing boom especially because global economy is doing kinda shit.
also back then there was western industry that could be offshored to china. whose industry’s gonna move to argentina now? nobody else with a significant manufacturing sector is stupid enough to do it, after watching the west shoot itself in the foot. or so one would hope…
You’re half right here. The idea is that the black market Peso:USD price represents the actual real value of the Peso, while the government’s official rate was miles away from this and completely divorced from reality and only remotely sustainable by endless amounts of borrowing, price controls, and money printing, which just contributes to worsening the problem. The hope is that a necessary but painful adjustment to the actual economic reality will eventually provide the stability necessary for real growth.
A smart government will know that, if you want to actually pull this kind of thing off, you need to do everything possible to make the transition as minimally painful as possible and do what you can to help protect the most vulnerable. We’ll see how Millei does, but I can’t say I’m exactly confident.