Donald Trump has won the presidential election in Arizona, Edison Research projected on Saturday, completing a sweep of all seven battleground states and locking in a decisive Electoral College victory over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
I hope they are too, but they’re definitely not. They’re gonna nationally ban abortion, amongst many other things. If anyone thinks otherwise, they’re kidding themselves.
I like to imagine that there would be uprisings, like the kind with molotovs, if a national abortion ban was passed, but I think the not-right is too disorganized. It’s all very handmaids tale.
And aside from infighting, there’s a lot of people clinging to “we should follow the rules.” Rules don’t mean much if only one faction is following them.
They will probably at least slow themselves down at minimum, though and that will matter. Their majority is already narrow and there are good odds of cutting into that majority further or potentially even flipping the house if we’re very lucky. They had house speakership fights for a while in 2022 with a narrow majority
At this point, honestly, I’m just maintaining my sanity by assuming the worst so that anything that goes even slightly less awful than the worst case makes me a little bit happier.
We have avoided some of the worst case this election. Down ballot dems have done a lot better than for president and that’s going to matter to keep them from being able to do anything without infighting fears. We could’ve been looking at a 57-43 senate should the swing states not have largely split their votes between senate and president. Instead we’re likely looking at a 53-47 or 52-48 senate.* The house could’ve also been worse too.
In state legislatures, dems did fairly well all things considered. State legislatures are the place that resistance to Trump is most likely to really be effective. We’ve managed to keep a lot of state legislature seats and even flip some in other areas. For instance, we broke up North Carolina’s republican super majority for instance which means the Democratic governor-elect can have effective vetos. We kept the 1 seat majority in the PA state house in a funny way of having two seats flipped in opposite directions and canceling each other out
*The Associated Press has called PA for McCormick, but Decision Desk actually thinks that Casey has a ~66% chance of winning still and neither campaign has conceded. McCormick is saying he thinks the call was incorrect and thinks things will could actually flip with the last 100,000 or so votes left to count and or may go to recount
EDIT: and to add on for further context, Decision Desk is usually some of the first to call any race - to the point where some people say their calls are premature. The AP usually calls races after Decision Desk. The AP usually is much more slow on their calls which is why this situation is so strange where the AP has called it but Decision Desk hasn’t and thinks it actually has 2/3 odds of going the opposite way that the AP called it
Separate from the Dems, but The Lincoln Project did run some ads aimed literally just at Trump to make him angry at his campaign staff. Here’s one example that ran on Fox News during the hours that Trump was most likely to watch it. The Trump campaign ended up sending a cease and desist over it
I hope they are too, but they’re definitely not. They’re gonna nationally ban abortion, amongst many other things. If anyone thinks otherwise, they’re kidding themselves.
I like to imagine that there would be uprisings, like the kind with molotovs, if a national abortion ban was passed, but I think the not-right is too disorganized. It’s all very handmaids tale.
And aside from infighting, there’s a lot of people clinging to “we should follow the rules.” Rules don’t mean much if only one faction is following them.
Moderates have always been the allies of fascists.
And the fascists (formerly proto-, now overt) haven’t been following the rules for a good 25-30 years now.
i’m crossing my fingers for another repeat of speaker of the house voting; but for the next 4 years.
They will probably at least slow themselves down at minimum, though and that will matter. Their majority is already narrow and there are good odds of cutting into that majority further or potentially even flipping the house if we’re very lucky. They had house speakership fights for a while in 2022 with a narrow majority
They are already having some signs of potential infighting in the senate where some Republicans are trying to claim McConnell is holding a “coup” against trump by having earlier senate leader elections (McConnel is not running for senate majority leader so it’s a bit more competitive)
At this point, honestly, I’m just maintaining my sanity by assuming the worst so that anything that goes even slightly less awful than the worst case makes me a little bit happier.
Not feeling very happy so far.
We have avoided some of the worst case this election. Down ballot dems have done a lot better than for president and that’s going to matter to keep them from being able to do anything without infighting fears. We could’ve been looking at a 57-43 senate should the swing states not have largely split their votes between senate and president. Instead we’re likely looking at a 53-47 or 52-48 senate.* The house could’ve also been worse too.
In state legislatures, dems did fairly well all things considered. State legislatures are the place that resistance to Trump is most likely to really be effective. We’ve managed to keep a lot of state legislature seats and even flip some in other areas. For instance, we broke up North Carolina’s republican super majority for instance which means the Democratic governor-elect can have effective vetos. We kept the 1 seat majority in the PA state house in a funny way of having two seats flipped in opposite directions and canceling each other out
*The Associated Press has called PA for McCormick, but Decision Desk actually thinks that Casey has a ~66% chance of winning still and neither campaign has conceded. McCormick is saying he thinks the call was incorrect and thinks things will could actually flip with the last 100,000 or so votes left to count and or may go to recount
EDIT: and to add on for further context, Decision Desk is usually some of the first to call any race - to the point where some people say their calls are premature. The AP usually calls races after Decision Desk. The AP usually is much more slow on their calls which is why this situation is so strange where the AP has called it but Decision Desk hasn’t and thinks it actually has 2/3 odds of going the opposite way that the AP called it
democrats need to figure out a way to stoke the divisions.
Don’t be ridiculous.
At least a dozen Democrats will reach across the isle to work with them. 😒
biden used to brag about doing this in the 2020 election; so i wonder if it’ll matter in 2028
Which island are they reaching across?
The island of stability known as compromise.
😔
Separate from the Dems, but The Lincoln Project did run some ads aimed literally just at Trump to make him angry at his campaign staff. Here’s one example that ran on Fox News during the hours that Trump was most likely to watch it. The Trump campaign ended up sending a cease and desist over it